This morning, rumors broke: Live Nation and the Department of Justice were about to agree to a settlement of the DOJ’s antitrust case that began last week in New York.
The headlines will likely call this settlement historic.
A landmark agreement.
A new day in ticketing.
As if?!
Here’s what’s really going down:
- Ticketmaster stays intact. No breakup.
- Exclusive deals are shortened to four years.
- Live Nation still controls the artists and venues.
- A handful of amphitheaters will be sold. Live Nation will still control well above 70% of the market.
- Service fees capped at 15%…at amphitheaters. Not arenas. Not festivals. Nowhere else. Just the amphitheaters.
- $200 million in damages. C’mon…that’s like me paying that $30 parking ticket I got in downtown DC the other night. I hated doing it, but it didn’t really hurt me.
The flywheel keeps spinning.
The structure stays. The power stays.
You may notice my skepticism.
Don’t believe me…look at the market.
Live Nation’s stock jumped 3.78% premarket.
On a day when the market has significant turmoil.
Investors aren’t stupid. They know a win when they see one.
The market feared a breakup. A spin-off of Ticketmaster. That’s off the table now.
Everything else is noise.
When the stock jumps at the news of a settlement…you know who won.
And it ain’t the ticket-buying public and the government.
Last week, the press covered stories about threats, coercion, and anticompetitive behavior.
The DOJ had a strong case.
Data on venue control. Evidence of exclusivity abuse. Witnesses testifying. A jury seated.
This settlement looks like the government folding with a winning hand.
Why?
Because a big part of the story is how Washington works.
Kellyanne Conway joined Live Nation as a lobbyist in 2024. Her relationship with the Trump administration and Trump family is deep.
She doesn’t argue cases.
She makes sure the right people answer the phone.
Washington is a pay to play town.
Pay the right people. Win the game.
This settlement isn’t justice. It is access dressed up as enforcement.
One More Thing…
This is my quick analysis, but the case isn’t over yet.
Inner City Press is in the courtroom. Live tweeting.
They report the DOJ has submitted settlement documents. They’ve asked for a continuance.
The Inner City Press wants to see the receipts. They’ve filed a request to unseal the documents in the case.
Reporters are saying:
- On March 5, the DOJ and Live Nation signed a term sheet. The binding outline of a settlement.
- On March 6, the trial continued. Witnesses testified. Evidence was presented. The court acted as if the trial was still going.
Judge Arun Subramanian asked a winning question: “If there was a signed term sheet on March 5, why did we end March 6 in the middle of a direct examination?”
Seriously?!
Because the government wanted the show. The headlines. The appearance of regulation.
The deal was done.
But the show went on.
Don’t look at the man behind the curtain.
As I was typing this, Matthew Russell Lee posted this summation of the situation.
The ending is a killer: you can’t trust the prosecution.
Where does this case go?
- States keep fighting?
- Judge seems skeptical.
- Michael Rapino in court tomorrow.
What in the world is going on here?!