Hi!
Thank you for your notes about yesterday’s post.
Thank you for sharing the post.
Thank you for reading.
I received a bunch of notes.
I took a specific angle in my analysis based on my work in branding and strategy.
Some of the ideas I had were too “in the weeds”.
As one comment noted, 84% aided brand awareness is great when StubHub shows up on search links.
That’s correct.
But it also highlights the importance of continuing to spend on ads.
You get the benefit of name recognition when competing in paid ads, but if you aren’t paying for ads…you might not show up and the aided brand awareness doesn’t pay off.
I also spent some time with Grok asking about my analysis, trends on X, and feeding in other data.
After a back and forth, I asked Grok to bullet point our conversation.
Here is what Grok gave me:
- StubHub’s Ad Overspend: $787.2M in 2024 ad spend (up 67% from $470.1M in 2023) dwarfs their $310M total sales and marketing increase, betting big on paid media to flex 84% brand awareness—29% revenue growth to $1.77B still ends in a $2.8M net loss.
- Brand Awareness Trade-Off: StubHub’s 84% aided awareness fuels search conversions, but the cash burn to sustain it risks long-term strategy for short-term market noise.
- Vivid’s Brand Lag: Weaker awareness and slipping share despite a 2024 breakeven; Skybox POS locks in data but frustrates sellers—a tactical play that’s not lifting their profile.
- Ticketmaster’s Power Play: 70% app growth (Feb 2024 vs. 2023) shows TM dominating secondary alongside primary, a branding and scale combo crushing competitors.
- Industry on Edge: Debt overload (StubHub’s $2.33B at 8x 2024 EBITDA of $298.7M), scant profits, and overspending signal a fragile market teetering toward collapse.
- StubHub’s IPO Ambition: March 2025 IPO filed with no valuation in the S-1; old $16.5B buzz (55x EBITDA) feels lofty—2024’s loss and debt hint Taylor Swift’s 2023 profit was a one-off.
- Post-Swift Hangover: No 2025 megatour in sight and X chatter on concert fatigue could sap spending, exposing StubHub’s growth as event-driven, not structural.
- Direct Issuance Push: StubHub’s late pivot to primary sales ($100M+ GMS) aims to rebrand, but TM’s grip and a 20% secondary take rate limit its strategic punch.
- Consolidation Trigger: A SeatGeek fall could spark chaos—TM grabs share, or PE bundles them with Vivid for a cheap counterplay, as you speculated.
- Debt Drag: StubHub’s $2.33B and industry-wide leverage (SeatGeek, Gametime) threaten fire sales or brutal refinancings if revenue falters.
- Market Reckoning: Overspending, debt, and TM’s shadow set 2025 up for a bust or buyout, reshaping the secondary ticketing game.
What do you think?
Let me know.
Dave
PS “Secondary Week” happened without a plan!
What will next week bring?