Typically around this time of year, I spend a bit of time thinking about what Peter Drucker would call, “the future that has already happened.”
This is an important idea for all of us because in many cases, we can find it easy to chase the latest buzzword, fad, or outdated idea in an effort to “innovate” or something like that.
By the same token, in many instances, the future that we should be looking at is right in front of us and we don’t take action on it.
Why?
Your guess is as good as mine, but here are a few of the reasons:
- Inertia
- “We’ve always done it this way”
- “I just work here.”
- Fear of success
- Fear of failure
I could add to the list being stuck on the short term thinking train.
I could add no vision.
No leadership.
The list would get quite long.
What ends up happening is that we allow time to pass, our competitors to gain advantage, and we end up being behind where we should rightfully be.
With that in mind, here are a few things that have already occurred that I are going to play a big role in where business goes this year:
Fans have voted with their attention: Working with sports and entertainment clients, I hear a lot about unfilled seats, declining attendance, and the health of the industry.
You might be baffled by how the first two relate to the last one.
But it is true.
The truth is that as great as sports and entertainment are doing from a revenue standpoint right now, the strains are evident at the seams of the business.
The NFL announced this morning that their attendance this year was the lowest since 2011. Which they were able to write off as partly due to the Chargers moving to a soccer stadium in the LA area.
We also heard about the NFL’s declining ratings being due to fans watching politics.
The same concepts are playing out in MLB, the NHL, and in a lot of NBA arenas as well.
I don’t think it is one particular thing that puts this in play, it is a number of things.
The biggest being that if you are not innovating constantly and disrupting yourself, someone else will. Usually you will feel a little flatfooted, dumbfounded, and struggle to regain your footing.
That’s happening now.
Fans have voted with their attention.
The rabid sports fan of old has gone away.
This morning I was listening to Troy Kirby’s podcast with Jim Haynes and Jim talked about how a family of four couldn’t afford to take their family to every game.
When that happens, you’re guaranteed to start losing fans.
It isn’t the money, it is the perception. People start to perceive the sports as something special that they connect to and instead start feeling like an ATM machine.
You’ve lost then.
You likely won’t get them back.
Which starts a trickle down effect of losing a generation of fans because kids aren’t introduced to your team by their parents.
So on and so on.
That’s going to be something to pay attention to. Because it is likely that the leagues and teams can only goose their numbers so much before they start to look ridiculous.
Nonprofits have already lost the battle for donor’s hearts and minds: I read Bowling Alone a few months back. I remember when it first came out in 2000-2001 and living in Seattle discussing the concepts with a colleague.
At the time, we were attempting to build a following, a donor base, and a business for a major new museum.
So the idea that nonprofits had just become factories to generate donations and not places that people invested their energy, their money, and their attention was alarming and new.
Over the decade plus since then, this trend has only accelerated.
In working with nonprofits all over the world, I see the challenge of connection at play in almost everyone of them.
So many of these nonprofits are so driven by the need to keep the fundraising tap open that they can’t see that one of the big, if not the biggest challenges, they face is the fact that their primary thought process is how they can raise more money.
Not help more people, but raise more money.
If you are at a nonprofit and you can’t state your mission in a clear manner so that a 4th grader can understand, you are likely missing something.
Winning over people begins with them understanding you.
Commoditization has run its course, what’s next? The Internet was a panacea? Or that was the promise.
The challenge occurred when the Internet led us to an Eden of “hacks” and “best practices” that weren’t best, good, or anything but effective in the moment.
Marketing has always been a bit of a “me too” profession.
That’s unlikely to change anytime soon.
But what isn’t likely to continue is the rush to commoditize everything you do.
We have had the era of free.
We have free-mium.
We have premium.
We have a lot of stuff that even when their is a monetary attachment feel like commodities.
We’ve hit a point where the same, lowest common denominator thing is over.
What’s next?
More personality.
More perspective.
More thoughtfulness.
More individuality.
These are just 3 of the ideas of the future that has already happened. I’ll probably have a few more over the next few days.